<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?>
<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
    <channel>
        <atom:link href="https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/2022-12/rss/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
        <title>Huntsville, Al Real Estate Blog</title>
        <link>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/2022-12/</link>
        <description></description>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/is-huntsville-a-top-10-housing-market-in-2023--huntsville-al-real-estate-news.html</guid>
    <link>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/is-huntsville-a-top-10-housing-market-in-2023--huntsville-al-real-estate-news.html</link>
        <author>leadrouter@mattcurtisrealestate.com (Matt Curtis)</author>
        <title>Is Huntsville a Top 10 Housing Market in 2023? | Huntsville, AL Real Estate News</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Is Huntsville a Top 10 Housing Market in 2023?





Is Huntsville, Alabama, a Top 10 real estate market to watch in 2023? The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seems to think so as they've ranked Huntsville number seven on their list of top cities in the US to watch in 2023.


Huntsville Housing Affordability


The study was based on several factors. One of those factors was the Housing Affordability Index. How affordable is the city? Huntsville has been above 100 for several years, anything above 100 is more affordable and anything below 100 is less affordable. A score of 100 means the average income can purchase the average home in that area.


NAR is actually behind on Huntsville's data and gave us a score of 120 when we're actually a score of 80. That's actually going to affect our volume of real estate sales in 2023 as homes are less affordable so fewer people can afford the homes here. The question is, can builders keep up with the actual pricing demands in the area, create more affordable products, and especially focus on those townhome and condo-type products to keep that affordability high?





Huntsville’s Percentage of Renters


One of the stats I think jumped off a page and helped make Huntsville on this list is the percentage of renters that are actively renting but could afford the median sales price home in our area. The national average is sitting at 15, Huntsville is at 29.1. I think that's for a couple of reasons.


First, we are a transient town and we have a lot of people moving to the area who just have not found a home yet. Secondly, I think a big factor at play is we have a town full of engineers that are more conservative. I think a lot of them are sitting on the sidelines and once you see interest rates hit 5, you're going to see a bump in both sales volume which will also create a bump in sales prices due to a lack of supply.





Huntsville’s Job Growth &amp; Population Growth


Job growth was another stat cited on why Huntsville will be a Top 10 housing market in 2023. This is a stat that I'm not sure they got right. They said Huntsville's job growth numbers came in at 2.1 versus 3.4 for the U.S. With our area booming, I can't believe we've only had 2.1 job growth.


Another stat that makes Huntsville jump off the charts compared to other cities is population growth. Population growth in the US is 0.01 on average, we're sitting at 1.8. A lot of new families and individuals are moving to the area which is continuing to increase the demand with not enough supply.


The share of inbound moves for Huntsville is at 53.7. That's important because right now we're experiencing what's called a mortgage rate locked down. We have a lot of sellers or would-be buyers sitting on the sidelines with rates starting in the 2’s or 3’s and are simply not motivated enough to move in a higher interest rate environment. The people that are transacting right now are renters and other life event things such as moving into the area. Since we've got such a high percentage of people moving into the area that is boding well for a 2023 real estate market for Huntsville.


Huntsville Active Listings &amp; Housing Shortage Tracker


Active listings is another key stat NAR focused on, Huntsville has had a high increase in the number of listings at 181.4. That's a very strong thing going forward, as we see interest rates hit 5 once again, we're going to need supply to help keep prices somewhat moderate and also to fulfill all that demand. I think what's going to happen is that's going to help with our volume, but it's going to keep prices flat in 2023 as there are simply not as many buyers in the marketplace.


The NAR housing shortage tracker shows Huntsville at 1.3 versus an average of 5. That basically means for every new job that comes to the area, how many new homes are we building? We're at a very strong ratio as we're ramping up production. The question is going to be, how does that ratio look in 2023 as builders start to slow down their production or sell a lot of their inventory to these built-to-rent type communities? If that number can stay low, that's going to be a strong thing for the market overall because it's going to help satisfy a lot of that demand as new population growth is coming to the area.


 


Matt’s 2023 Huntsville Housing Market Prediction 


Some of the stats were off in this article, however, several of those stats jumped off the page which helps make Huntsville one of the Top 10 real estate markets to watch in 2023. In 2023 I don't think we're going to see wild appreciation, I think all of these stats are actually building up for a very strong market in 2024 or whenever we see interest rates hit 5 again.


If you're looking to buy or sell and 2023 is your year to make a move, contact us today


 



 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Fri, 30 Dec 2022 11:25:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/huntsville-al-housing-market-update--november-2022.html</guid>
    <link>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/huntsville-al-housing-market-update--november-2022.html</link>
        <author>leadrouter@mattcurtisrealestate.com (Matt Curtis)</author>
        <title>Huntsville, AL Housing Market Update | November 2022</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Huntsville, AL Housing Market Update | November 2022





Home sales are down 27 year over year, yet prices are still up 8.7 year over year. Housing affordability and the mortgage rate lockdown effect are continuing to push the number of homes sold down, we’ll look at what effects these and other factors had on the Huntsville housing market in November. If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in Huntsville, AL, this information can help you make the best decision based on your situation.


New Listings, Pending Sales, &amp; Days on Market


New listings are down 16 year over year, which is due to this mortgage rate locked down we’re experiencing. In fact, there are a lot of sellers that have rates starting in the 2’s or 3’s which are ultra-low interest rates, and they just don't have enough motivation to sell in this market to get a higher interest rate.


The other thing that could affect listings in 2023 and could push that number down even further is new construction. We've had this glut of extra new construction inventory that's short-term and has to work its way through the market, but with that, builders are being very cautious about adding new inventory into the market in 2023 which could push down the overall supply. Another thing to really keep a close eye on, that a lot of people aren't aware of, is we have a transformer crisis in our community. A lot of builders that are trying to put new lots and new home sites on the ground, simply cannot do that or it's being delayed due to the lack of supply of transformers.


Pending sales are down 28.1 off of record highs a year ago, which is in line with a lot of the rest of the country. I was just at a conference where they were saying 30 nationally. I expect that number to continue to decrease in 2023 as we potentially have higher mortgage interest rates, continue to experience this mortgage rate lockdown effect, and also new construction slowdown. We're potentially going to see a volume nationally of around 4 million homes sold, which is off from a high of above 6 million homes.


Days on market in the Huntsville area is up to 24 days, which is still a very low number. I'd expect to see that number continue to rise in 2023.








Average Sales Price &amp; Percent of List Price Received


Our average sales price in the North Alabama market is coming in at $325,000, but in the Huntsville market, it's still at about $365,000. I would expect to see that average price come down a bit in 2023 and the reason for that is higher interest rates. That's going to push a lot of buyers into lower price points so the majority of the sales are going to continue to push down into the average price point and below, which will likely drag down the overall average price as fewer luxury homes are sold in 2023.


The percent of list-to-sales ratio is 98.3, which is great news for buyers as it's been above 100 for the last couple of years. Instead of a seller expecting to receive a full-price offer or even above the list price, there's actually some negotiation room. This is great for buyers as they are now negotiating closing costs and discounts on their homes. It's also really helping a lot of first-time home buyers and millennial-type buyers get into their first home because they were having a hard time competing against all-cash offers where they had to go $25,000 or $30,000+ above list price and come out of pocket above their down payment where simply a lot of first time homebuyers didn't have enough cash to compete. Having a market that's a little bit more balanced where first-time buyers can negotiate closing costs is a healthy thing.


I would expect that number to get to the 97 range because that's really more considered a balanced market. If we get below 97, that would be a sign that we're starting to decline in this market.


 


Housing Affordability &amp; Inventory


Some of the biggest news in this market is that housing affordability is down to 82, which is down 34.4 year over year and is down from about 200 just seven years ago in 2015. The reason this is so important is that now with a score of 82, the average income in our area can no longer afford the average home in our area.


That puts a lot of stress on the community when a police officer or teacher cannot live within the community where they work and they have to commute in and live outside of the community. It’s not a positive thing for our community where that affordability is down. I would expect to see more townhomes and condos coming into the market in 2023 and 2024 to help with that affordability.


The good news for buyers is that inventory is up 75.9 year over year, which is up from record lows. We're up to 2,939 homes on the market. We're still sitting at only 2.6 months of work of supply. That means that the current rate of sales with the inventory that's on the market, to sell every home on the market assuming the same rate of sales and no new homes available on the market, that number is sitting at 2.6 months.


That's still considered a seller's market. A balanced market is considered 4 to 6 months. Look for that inventory to continue to increase in 2023. The challenge is going to be the mortgage rate lockdown effect and how many sellers actually put their homes on the market. The other thing to note is inventory is still way down, in 2015 we averaged about 6,000 homes on the marketplace right now. We're still only about half of the typical supply that we see in this Huntsville market.


If 2023 is your year to buy a new home or sell and buy, contact us today and we’ll be happy to look at the numbers and talk you through your particular situation to see if it's the right move for you.
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Wed, 28 Dec 2022 11:35:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/huntsville-al-real-estate-news-fed-raises-interest-rates-for-7th-time-in-2022.html</guid>
    <link>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/huntsville-al-real-estate-news-fed-raises-interest-rates-for-7th-time-in-2022.html</link>
        <author>leadrouter@mattcurtisrealestate.com (Matt Curtis)</author>
        <title>Fed Raises Interest Rates for 7th time in 2022 | Huntsville, AL Real Estate News</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
The Fed Strikes Back





Inflation is down, interest rates are down, the stock market's been going up, and enters the Fed; The Empire Strikes Back. The Fed's at it again, they've raised the overnight rates to a target range of between 4.25 to 4.5, which is down from the previous increases. They've been raising them by .75 for the last four meetings, this is the seventh time the Fed has raised rates in 2022.


The Fed’s Goal


We are still in unprecedented times with the Fed's interest rate moves. On top of raising rates, the Fed also offered guidance that their new target rate is between the 5 to 5.25 rate, which is still another .75 from where we're at today. That's about half a point higher than the Fed had previously predicted and much higher than they gave guidance to earlier this year.


Most Fed economists are now saying increases are likely to continue throughout 2023 with interest rate decreases not happening until 2024 with a target rate of 4.1 in that 2024 timeframe. So why is the Fed doing this?


They're doing this because their inflation goal is 2 and the numbers just came in at 7.1. They're a little bit at odds with the general market. The market took 7.1 as a good sign because it's down drastically from the previous month where it was at 7.6 and down 2 from back in June, where it was 9.1. So the thinking on Wall Street is that we're making good progress with a 2 decline in five months.


A lot of these rate hikes take time to have an effect on the marketplace and so the Fed's not really giving the time for the market to react and the market's already come down 2. There's a lot of fear out there that the Fed is overreacting and being too bullish with their rate hikes and may slow down the economy too much.





The Fed’s Predictions and What to Expect


The Fed also offered guidance that they're predicting a .5 GDP growth in 2023, which is just slightly above recession levels. I don't think we can put a lot of stock in that because the Fed has not predicted many things accurately this year. They also gave different guidance earlier in the year in terms of how many rate increases they were going to have this year and next year, so the Fed's track record has not been very accurate this year. I wouldn’t put a lot of guidance into that GDP growth number and I would predict that we will be in a recession in 2023.


The bottom line is it’s going to take time. The velocity of rate increases that we're experiencing from the Fed is going to experience a lag effect, and we just don't know what that lag effect is. The Fed doesn't even know because they've never done it at this rate before.


The fed is clearly being disingenuous in their guidance or making things up as they go along. First of all, they said inflation was going to be transitory. Secondly, the Fed is also doing quantitative tightening. This means as mortgage bonds are falling off, they're not renewing them, which is putting upward pressure on interest rates.


Then the third thing is our government, our politicians have printed so much money into the marketplace that it's going to take time for all that money to work its way through. What we did is we printed money while people were out of work and not producing goods. So we created extra demand when the supply was down and that has put a lot of pressure on inflation as well.





Matt’s Advice


In 2023, expect interest rates to potentially rise over the next several months. We've had this period of time where interest rates have shrunk into the low to mid 6 range off of highs of 7, But with all that, there is a silver lining.


With this current market, there are a lot of sellers and there are a lot of builders that are offering interest rate buydowns or 2-1 rate buydowns. So where rates are in the 6 range, we're seeing people get rates into the 5 and even introductory rates into the 4 range with a 2-1 rate buydown. It’s a great opportunity to lock in a good rate in a market that is now more negotiable.


A lot of people are saying, marry that home and date the rate. It's very true in a potential transitory kind of interest rate environment where rates may go up a little bit and then potentially come back down based on what the Fed is saying.


If you're interested in buying or selling a home in 2023, give us a call today and we'll be happy to walk you through your particular situation and give you advice on whether this is the right time for you to buy and sell.


 



 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Fri, 23 Dec 2022 11:27:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/sneak-peek-listings-for-december-23rd--huntsville-area-houses-for-sale.html</guid>
    <link>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/sneak-peek-listings-for-december-23rd--huntsville-area-houses-for-sale.html</link>
        <author>leadrouter@mattcurtisrealestate.com (Matt Curtis)</author>
        <title>Sneak Peek Listings For December 23rd | Huntsville Area Houses For Sale</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Sneak Peek Listings For December 23rd





13982 Ripley Road - $225,000


13982 Ripley Road, Athens, Alabama 35611


4 Bed | 2 Bath | 2,357 sqft


Talk to an MC Agent today for more info or call 256-270-9393














Talk to an MC Agent today for more info or call 256-270-9393



 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Fri, 23 Dec 2022 08:46:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/huntsville-al-real-estate-news-real-estate-investor-slowdown.html</guid>
    <link>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/huntsville-al-real-estate-news-real-estate-investor-slowdown.html</link>
        <author>leadrouter@mattcurtisrealestate.com (Matt Curtis)</author>
        <title>Real Estate Investor Slowdown | Huntsville, AL Real Estate News</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
 


Real Estate Investor Slowdown





Real estate has been weird for the last couple of years, especially for real estate investors. We've had COVID, we've had this 5.5 million home deficit in the housing market, and then we've had this rise of institutional buyers in the marketplace. As a real estate investor, I've always been taught that you make a lot of your money at the purchase stage so you want to buy a home priced right.


All that's been thrown out the window over the last couple of years with this rise of institutional home buyers. They're buying homes at list price, often $20,000 to $30,000 above list price, and buying hundreds and even thousands of homes at a time. So why did they do this? It all came down to yield spreads and cap rates.


The cap rates continued to go down, but it didn't scare off institutional buyers. The reason for that was interest rates were so low and the cap rate was at a certain amount that they were actually still able to make a spread on the amount of money that they were borrowing, oftentimes, they were getting even below-market interest rates that were already so low that they were still making money in this market.


The other reason institutional buyers were placing their money in real estate is they're looking for a place to park their money for yields. They couldn't get their U.S. Treasury yields because they were so low at the time, now we've got a different scenario. A six-month Treasury yield is now up to 4.7, so you now have this place where you can park your money with a decent yield. That's causing a lot of institutional buyers to slow down because they have other places to park their money and that 4.7 is close to a lot of the cap rates that they're getting on some of their institutional real estate buyers right now.


Now it’s a tale of two stories. You have institutional buyers that are starting to slow down because they can't just buy a thousand homes, pay $30,000 above list price, and expect to win in this market with Treasury yields where they're at. Then you also have the traditional investor that's bracing themselves for some potential deals for a short window of time as new construction is on sale and there may be some motivated sellers over the next 90 days.


Based on the headlines, it looks like the Fed is starting to achieve some of its goals in returning real estate to normalcy. However, the big challenge is the smart money is not buying it. The biggest challenge that we have in this country is undersupply and the Fed is not addressing the undersupply in this country so it looks like institutional buyers are going to be gearing up to buy again in the future based on this undersupply in the marketplace.








Worried about losing out to real estate investors? Talk to an MC Agent today to discuss your goals



 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2022 13:08:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/why-arent-housing-prices-falling--huntsville-al-real-estate-news.html</guid>
    <link>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/why-arent-housing-prices-falling--huntsville-al-real-estate-news.html</link>
        <author>leadrouter@mattcurtisrealestate.com (Matt Curtis)</author>
        <title>Why Aren't Housing Prices Falling? | Huntsville, AL Real Estate News</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Why Aren’t Housing Prices Dropping? | Buying a Home in Huntsville, AL


 


Mortgage rates are way up, and affordability is way down. You would expect prices to be coming down but they're not. So what is happening?


When it comes to housing prices not dropping, we've talked about a lot of the reasons like dollar devaluation and with a 5.5 million home deficit across this country there are also issues with of lack of supply. Another thing affecting housing prices is the mortgage rate lockdown effect.


Mortgage Rate Lockdown Effect


The mortgage rate lockdown effect is due to so many households having such low mortgage rates, that once rates rise, they have no interest in selling their home and getting locked into a much higher rate.


That's exactly what's happening. 85 of homebuyers have a rate of 5 or below, which is creating that mortgage rate lockdown effect. These would-be sellers are now staying on the sidelines and not putting their homes on the market for sale.


Why is anybody buying right now?


You might ask if 85 of all borrowers have a mortgage rate of 5 or below, why is anybody buying right now?


There are several answers to that. First, 38 of all purchasers do not have a mortgage. So simply, interest rates do not affect their purchasing power. Second, we have this huge segment of the population, millennials, that still have not purchased their first home yet and are still looking to enter into the marketplace.


Then life just happens, good things like having babies, marriage, and job promotions. Then we have bad things that happen like divorce and death. All of these different reasons make housing continue to move forward. There are always people buying in the marketplace, there are just fewer people buying, about 20 to 25 fewer people, buying in the marketplace today.


Are you ready to buy a new home? Talk to an MC Agent today to discuss your real estate goals


 



 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2022 14:15:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/sneak-peek-listings-for-december-2nd--huntsville-area-houses-for-sale.html</guid>
    <link>https://www.mattcurtisrealestate.com/HuntsvilleAlRealEstateBlog/sneak-peek-listings-for-december-2nd--huntsville-area-houses-for-sale.html</link>
        <author>leadrouter@mattcurtisrealestate.com (Matt Curtis)</author>
        <title>Sneak Peek Listings for December 2nd | Huntsville Area Houses For Sale</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Sneak Peek Listings for December 2nd








5298 Bay Shore Drive - $299,900


5298 Bay Shore Drive, Athens, Alabama 35611


3 Bed | 2 Bath | 1,678 sqft


Talk to an MC Agent today for more info or call 256-270-9393











40 Buttercup Drive - $175,000


40 Buttercup Drive, Guntersville, Alabama 35976


2 Bed | 1 Bath | 925 sqft


Talk to an MC Agent today for more info or call 256-270-9393
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Fri, 02 Dec 2022 15:44:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
    </channel>
</rss>